STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Xi Jinping took power one year ago, becoming head of the Chinese Communist Party
- Three analysts give their verdict on how key areas have fared under his watch
- Domestically, Xi has found public support and significantly consolidated his power
- The economy has seen a welcome shift but there has been little cheer for the environment
Editor's note: The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Cheng Li, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center, Isabel Hilton, the the founder and editor of www.chinadialogue.net, a bilingual Chinese English website and Louis Kuijs is Chief China Economist at Royal Bank of Scotland and a former IMF and World Bank economist.
Hong Kong (CNN) -- A year ago, China's new generation of leaders strode out onto a stage in the cavernous Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
They were led by Xi Jinping, who took over from Hu Jintao as head of the Chinese Communist Party, which has ruled China for more than 60 years.
CNN asked three analysts
for their verdict on Xi's first year at China's helm in three key areas:
Domestic politics, the environment and the economy.
Domestic politics: A fiery start
Cheng Li is director of research and a senior fellow at Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center.
The Chinese saying "A new
leader lights three bonfires" vividly captures the momentum and
accomplishments of Xi's first year as party boss.
Each of these "three bonfires" ---- the vigorous
anti-corruption campaign,
the successful conclusion of thetrial of disgraced politician Bo Xilai,
and the comprehensive and deeper market reforms embraced at the third
plenum -- have granted him much needed public support and significantly
consolidated his power.
From the first day of his
tenure as general secretary of the Party, he admitted to the public
that the rampancy of official corruption was ruining the Party and the
country.
With Wang Qishan, his
most important political ally in the Politburo Standing Committee, Xi
launched a tough anti-corruption campaign. Within a year, 11 ministerial
and provincial-level senior leaders were arrested, including leaders
within the country's most formidable special interest groups like the
oil industry. Some critics may be cynical about the methods employed in
the anti-corruption campaign, but the campaign has already transformed
the behavior of Chinese officials.
China's one child policy changes
China embraces markets
China plans its economic future
Xi borrows from Mao playbook
Xi should be credited
with the successful completion of the Bo trial, which was the largest
legitimacy crisis for the Party since the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident
and widely perceived to be a "no-win" situation for the Party
leadership. The scandal revealed the fact that some high-ranking Party
leaders like Bo -- China's Gatsby -- have
decadent lifestyles filled with sex, money laundering, and even murder. Xi and his colleagues handled the case wisely in three aspects:
First, they focused on
Bo's corruption, not on his other unlawful behavior. Second, they used
social media micro-blogging to disseminate the details of the courtroom
proceedings, thus undermining criticism of lack of openness. And third,
Bo's verdict of life imprisonment seemed to be appropriate, neither too
severe nor too lenient.
Most importantly, Xi
wants to leave a strong mark on the economic front. He has embraced as
his mandate the "Chinese dream," defined as the rejuvenation of the
Chinese nation and the opportunity to realize a middle-class lifestyle.
The overall objective of his new economic policy, as evident from the
third plenum, is to make the private sector the "decisive driver" of the
Chinese economy, to make the Chinese middle class happy, and to allow
more members of the lower class to attain middle class status.
While Xi's above three
bonfires have resonated well among the general public, there are some
valid worries about Xi and his rapidly growing power. Xi's politically
conservative -- and sometimes even
Mao-style --
approach that has relied on tight political control and media
censorship has alienated the country's liberal intellectuals. His broad
and strong anti-corruption campaign may also alienate a large number of
officials -- the very power base on which the Party relies.
The environment: Promises but few results
Isabel Hilton is the founder and editor of www.chinadialogue.net, a
bilingual Chinese English website devoted to building a shared approach
on climate change and environmental issues with China. She graduated
from the University of Edinburgh with an honors MA in Chinese, and in
1973 was one of the first British students to study in China.
There was not much cheer
for environmentalists in the meeting that was billed as the most
significant of Xi Jinping's administration. At the close of the Chinese
Communist Party's Third Plenum on November 13, China's official news
agency, Xinhua, failed even to list the environment among its key
points, focusing instead on the promise of economic reform.
Xi has recognized that
prioritizing economic growth for 30 years has brought China to the edge
of environmental collapse and he has promised to give environment the
same weight as economic development. But 2013 was a year of
dramatically worsening air pollution
and mounting public frustration at the government's apparent inability
to halt China's deforestation, maritime pollution, desertification and
water and soil pollution.
In spite of the arrival of new people at the top, the politics of reform have not changed
Louis Kuijs
Xi said China must build
what it calls "ecological civilization" -- a top-level slogan that
officials are still struggling to flesh out. He talked of "establishing a
complete system" of ecological civilization, promised to improve the
management of natural resources, and to establish "red lines" in
ecological protection, along with ecological compensation for pollution
victims.
It is how these and
other promises shape up that will decide Xi's environmental legacy. So
far, his government has announced plans to clean up lethal air pollution
but they will take many years to take effect.
In other respects,
environmental protection risks clashing with other concerns: a new
Environmental Protection Law that is moving slowly through China's
parliament threatens serious financial penalties for polluting
companies, but has also been heavily criticized for restricting the
rights of NGOs to take legal action against polluters, as Xi tightens
the state's control of civil society.
It also plays a role in
the rising incidence of protest and chronic rural poverty, which
President Xi has promised to reverse. The environment could benefit from
Xi's commitment to a greater role for the market, which might boost
China's pilot carbon-trading schemes, and from his promise of a stronger
legal system and greater transparency.
High-level promises set
the policy direction, but Xi's environmental record will be judged by
results. Key issues include cleaning up China's Environmental Impact
Assessments, boosting the Ministry of Environmental Protection and
putting it in charge of the provincial and local bureaus, building a
robust, legally enforced system of fines for polluters and lifting
restrictions on China's tightly controlled environmental NGOs.
The economy: Welcome shift
Louis Kuijs is Chief China Economist at Royal Bank of Scotland and a former IMF and World Bank economist.
Under the new
leadership, we have seen a welcome shift towards a more comprehensive
approach to reform. This was underlined by the decisions made during
last week's Plenum to recalibrate the role of the government, with less
direct intervention and more facilitation of the market and provision of
public services.
We have also witnessed a
move towards more emphasis on the sustainability and quality of growth,
as opposed to simply the rate of growth. During the slowdown that China
went through until the middle of this year, the leadership was more
restrained than previously in rolling out stimulus measures, emphasizing
that reform is more important than short-term stimulus.
In a similar vein, the
leadership is trying to put more emphasis on improving the quality of
urbanization -- basically by allowing migrants to integrate into a
proper urban life -- and the reforms needed to make that happen in areas
such as the fiscal system and rural land arrangements.
In spite of the arrival
of new people at the top, the politics of reform in China's
consensus-driven policymaking process has not changed.
For instance, in the
case of reforms related to state-run enterprises and the fiscal system,
resistance remains as strong as ever. This has meant that progress on
such reforms has been slow so far although, in a promising move, the
leadership is now trying to overcome such political obstacles by
introducing a "leading group" with a mandate to coordinate and push the
reform agenda.
All in all, on the
economic front the new leadership has made a reasonably promising start.
In the coming two years, I would expect to see pretty good progress on
reform in those areas where the political economy is favorable, which is
the case in the financial and monetary area, as well as on pricing and
taxation of resources. On the other hand, in the areas of state-owned
enterprises, fiscal reform and rural land arrangements, I would expect
progress to remain slower in the coming two years.
